Madera County 2025 Forecast: A hospital reborn
Madera on the Map
The Highway 41 corridor has been ripe with activity, said Bobby Kahn, interim executive director of the Madera County Economic Development Commission (MCEDC).
This past August, Valley Children’s Healthcare announced plans for “The Hill,” a 220-acre, mixed-used development on its main campus. It will have a mix of health care space, housing, commercial, recreation, office and hospitality.
Kahn said in following with the 1,135-acre Gunner Ranch West Specific Plan, infrastructure work across the street from Valley Children’s Hospital is anticipated to start in the next 12 to 24 months.
The plan envisions a medical campus that will provide significant medical services and opportunities, with an array of commercial uses, including a regional commercial center and a system of parks, trails and open space.
The plan proposes development of up to 2,840 residential units, more than 2 million square feet of regional commercial uses, 751,000 square feet of medical office and related services, 1.1 million square feet of hospital and related services, community facilities, elementary schools, and a community/government center.
The plan also calls for 72 acres of open space and parks, and a 62-acre wastewater treatment plant.
Hospital reborn
Perhaps the most symbolic victory for Madera County is the return of Madera Community Hospital, which closed its doors in January 2023 and filed for bankruptcy protection.
The hospital received the first $15 million installment of a total $57 million emergency loan from the Distressed Hospital Loan Program. The funds are to be used for improvements such as updating patient equipment and operational expenses including hiring and training.
Kahn said the hospital is scheduled to open on Jan. 13, 2025, under new operator American Advanced Management from Modesto.
American Advanced Management has been hosting job fairs to fill more than 200 staff positions (not including doctors). Of those, 135 positions have been filled.
“As it opens, they will continue to staff-up and grow, adding more and more services,” Kahn said. “That will be huge for the City of Madera and the surrounding area. The health industry is known for higher wages, and those are industries you’d like to see in your community.
Burgeoning communities
The Riverstone development already has more than 1,000 homes built, and its commercial development mix includes Dutch Bros, a couple of restaurants and retailers.
A 2025 opening of Riley’s Pub is expected at Riverwalk, an office plaza on the corner of Highway 41 and Avenue 12.
The Tesoro Viejo community has plans for about 5,200 homes, with more than 1,000 already built. Across from Tesoro Viejo on Avenue 15 and Highway 41, there are plans for a Starbucks.
There is also the “Village D” Infrastructure Plan, located on Avenue 16 and Road 23, with the project covering 1,860 acres and including 10,783 housing units, as well as commercial and public facilities, recreation and open space.
The project is estimated to be built-out over a 20-year time span, Kahn said.
HVAC and gaming
Recently, a closed Church and Dwight Co. food supplement manufacturing on Avenue 12 near Road 32 was purchased by Vezina Industries, a Madera manufacturer specializing in windows, doors and HVAC solutions.
Along with the homegrown expansion, the area is getting attention from outside the area, though nothing has been finalized.
“We are getting a lot of looks now from national tenants,” Kahn said. “Madera is on the map. I think we will see continual retail growth in the City of Madera.”
A major project in the area is the North Fork Mono Casino & Resort, off of Avenue 18 and Road 23, which broke ground in September.
Kahn said there is hopes that the casino portion will open by late 2025 or early 2026. The first phase will be construction of the casino, followed by the resort, with a total construction timeline spanning five to ten years.
In August, the new AutoZone distribution center, located between Highway 99 and the Chowchilla Airport, debuted with 500,000 square feet, creating 200-300 new jobs.
Ag front
This season provided big, rainy storms and high temperatures, which presented a challenge for some crops. Kahn noted the price of almonds remains soft, and grape growers still face challenges as wine consumption drops.
He predicts almond orchards will continue to be pushed out, especially the older ones. Wineries are not seeking out grape contracts like they used to, and the raisin market is “mediocre” from a pricing perspective, Kahn said.
He also noted that the dairy industry continues to struggle with pricing
“I think ag in 2025 is still going to be a challenge for most commodities, but if you’re a farmer that’s positioned right, and not taking on a lot of debt, you should be OK,” Kahn said.
This month, Kristina Gallagher was named as the new executive director of the MCEDC, coming from a background in in local government advocacy, public policy, and community engagement with the California State Association of Counties.
Gallagher said she will look to Kahn’s experience for guidance, as well as the community.
“I’m looking to be very active with businesses and real estate and find out how to help build infrastructure into the two cities [Madera and Chowchilla] and the county,” Gallagher said. “In a year or two, I hope to have a 5-year plan going — something we could put down with the executive committee, and businesses and other local partners.”
Downturn in tourism
While millions flock from all over the world to see Madera County’s natural landscapes, most notably Yosemite National Park, the park’s reservation system did cause a dip in visitors when it was implemented last year, said Rhonda Salisbury, CEO of the Southern Yosemite Visitors Bureau.
The first and second quarters of 2024 saw high levels of tourism that waned off after the Yosemite reservations set in.
“It hurt the economy quite a bit,” Salisbury said. “We are expecting anywhere from a 10-20% drop in hotel occupancy from last year.”
The reservation system did provide a small boost for local tour operators, businesses and restaurants as more people waited in nearby towns before they could enter the park.
Salisbury said Yosemite National Park has not released its reservation system for 2025, but she assumes there will be one.
She hopes 2025 will be another test year — and not a permanent fixture — for the reservation system, and that it’s less aggressive than 2024.
She said the park was pushing away 700 visitors that didn’t have a reservation each day.
The bureau has sent letters to Washington, D.C., with hopes to find the best system.
Building up
Darren Rose, CEO of the Building Industry Association of Fresno/Madera Counties, said much remains to be seen in 2025, considering falling interest and mortgage rates.
“I think we will continue to see building activity, and a lot of it depends on how things unfold with the new administration,” Rose said.
If implemented, Trump’s proposed tariffs will increase prices on construction inputs, such as in lumber, concrete, and other items used to build homes. Those increases in costs will be put into the purchase price and passed on to home buyers.
Even though prices for nearly everything has gone up, builders continue to build homes.
“All of my builders are anticipating growth, and we are excited about that, but we have to see how things unfold with the economy,” Rose said.
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