Stronger job market seen for California, Central Valley to Lead

Central Valley Business Times

Sept. 11, 2018

•  Central Valley’s major markets expected to see some job growth

•  Stockton, Sacramento to outpace national growth rate

California employers expect to hire at a solid pace during the fourth quarter, according to surveys by the staffing firm ManpowerGroup (NYSE: MAN).

Among the state’s employers surveyed, 25 percent plan to hire more workers from October through December. This number is offset by the 4 percent that plan to reduce payrolls, while 70 percent of employers expect to maintain current staff levels and 1 percent indicate they are not sure of their hiring plans. This yields a net employment outlook of 21 percent.

“Employers in the California anticipate a stronger hiring pace compared to Q3 2018 when the net employment outlook was 18 percent,” says ManpowerGroup spokesman Frank Armendariz. “At this time last year, employers expected remain stable hiring activity when the outlook was 20 percent.”

Manpower’s net employment outlook is derived by taking the percentage of employers anticipating an increase in hiring activity and subtracting from this the percentage of employers expecting a decrease in hiring activity.

Here are Manpower’s outlooks for the Central Valley’s four largest markets, from south to north:

•  Bakersfield Bakersfield employers expect to hire at a “respectable” pace during Q4, says ManpowerGroup.

Among employers surveyed, 21 percent plan to hire more employees from October through December. This number is

offset by the 5 percent that plan to reduce payrolls, while 72 percent of employers expect to maintain current staff levels and 2 percent indicate they are not sure of their hiring plans. This yields a net employment outlook of 16 percent.

“Employers in the Bakersfield MSA anticipate a stonger hiring pace compared to Q3 2018 when the net employment outlook was 13 percent,” says Mr. Armendariz. “At this time last year, employers expected less hiring activity when the outlook was 20 percent.”

•  Fresno Fresno area employers expect to hire at a positive pace during the Fourth Quarter, says Manpower.

Among employers surveyed, 17 percent plan to hire more employees from October through December. This number is offset by the 3 percent that plan to reduce payrolls, while 80 percent of employers expect to maintain current staff levels and 0 percent indicate they are not sure of their hiring plans. This

yields a net Employment Outlook of 14 percent.

“Employers in the Fresno MSA anticipate a steady hiring pace compared to Q3 2018 when the net employment outlook was 15 percent,” says Mr. Armendariz. “At this time last year, employers expected similar hiring activity when the outlook was 15 percent.”

•  Stockton Stockton-Lodi MSA employers expect to hire at an active pace during Quarter 4 2018, according to ManpowerGroup.

Among employers surveyed, 26 percent plan to hire more employees from October through December. This number is offset by the 2 percent that plan to reduce payrolls, while 71 percent of employers expect to maintain current staff levels and 1 percent indicate they are not sure of their hiring plans. This yields a net employment outlook of 24 percent.

“Employers in the Stockton-Lodi MSA anticipate a stronger

hiring pace compared to Q3 2018 when the net employment outlook was 19 percent,” says ManpowerGroup spokeswoman Danielle Switalski. “At this time last year, employers expected similar hiring activity when the Outlook was 26 percent.”

•  Sacramento Employers in the metropolitan Sacramento area expect to hire at a solid pace during Quarter 4 2018, according to Manpower.

Among employers surveyed, 29 percent plan to hire more employees from October through December. This number is offset by the 6 percent that plan to reduce payrolls, while 64 percent of employers expect to maintain current staff levels and 1 percent indicate they are not sure of their hiring plans. This yields a net employment outlook of 23 percent.

“Employers in the Sacramento MSA anticipate a steady hiring pace compared to Q3 2018 when the net employment outlook was 24 percent,” says Mr. Armendariz. “At this time last year, employers expected more hiring activity when the Outlook was

19 percent.”

Statewide, for the coming quarter, job prospects appear best in the following job categories: construction; durable goods manufacturing; nondurable goods manufacturing; transportation & utilities; wholesale & retail trade; information; financial activities; professional & business services; education & health services; leisure & hospitality; other services and government.

Of the more than 11,500 employers surveyed in the United States, 22 percent expect to add to their workforces and 5 percent expect a decline in their payrolls during Quarter 4 2018. Seventy- one percent of employers anticipate making no change to staff levels and the remaining 2 percent of employers are undecided about their hiring plans.

When seasonal variations are removed from the data, the net employment outlook is +19 percent which is relatively stable compared to the Quarter 3 2018 Outlook, +18 percent.

About the surveys The ManpowerGroup Employment Outlook Survey is conducted quarterly to measure employers’ intentions to increase or decrease the number of employees in their workforces during the next quarter. The United States results are based on interviews with 11,500+ employers located in the 50 states, the District of Columbia and Puerto Rico, which includes the largest 100 Metropolitan Statistical Areas based on the number of business establishments. The mix of industries within the survey follows the North American Industry Classification System Supersectors and is structured to be representative of the U.S. economy.

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