Manpower: Strong employment outlook predict for Q 3

Central Valley Business Times

June 11, 2019

  • 21 percent of employers nationwide plan to add employees
  • Two Central Valley metros are topping that

In the third quarter of 2019, 27 percent of U.S. employers expect to increase payrolls, 3 percent anticipate a decrease and 69 percent expect no change.

Once the data is adjusted to allow for seasonal variation, the national Net Employment Outlook for the U.S. stands at +21 percent, the strongest reported in 13 years.

Hiring intentions are 2 percentage points stronger when compared with the previous quarter, and improve by 3 percentage points in comparison with this time one year ago.

Employers in 28 percent of businesses surveyed in the West expect workforce gains during the coming quarter, while 3 percent anticipate a decrease and 68 percent expect no change. The resulting Net Employment Outlook stands at +25 percent. Once the data is adjusted to allow for seasonal variation, hiring plans for the region are the strongest reported in more than 11 years. Employers report a slight quarter-over-quarter improvement in the Outlook, and a moderate increase when compared with this time one year ago.

In three of the West’s industry sectors, employers report moderately stronger hiring intentions for Quarter 3 2019 when compared with the previous quarter: information, professional & business services and transportation & utilities. Slightly stronger hiring prospects are reported in four of the region’s industry sectors: financial activities, government, leisure & hospitality and nondurable goods manufacturing.

Education & health services sector employers in the West report a relatively stable labor market in a comparison with the second quarter of 2019, Manpower says.

During the next three months, job seekers in the West’s durable goods manufacturing and other services sectors can expect moderately weaker hiring activity when compared with the previous quarter, according to employers. Employers in the region’s construction and wholesale & retail trade sectors report slightly weaker hiring plans.

Manpower says 31 percent of employers in the Sacramento metropolitan area expect a net employment increase in the third quarter, one of the strongest performances in the nation.

More than one out of four (26 percent) of employers in the Stockton metro expect a net employment increase in Q 3, on par with Boston, Columbus, Omaha, Phoenix, and Washington, D.C.

Twenty percent of Bakersfield employers told Manpower that they plan to increase their workforces in the third quarter and 19 percent of those in the Fresno MSA said the same.

Employers in the Midwest report the strongest hiring prospects in 18 years, with Manpower’s outlook improving by 2 percentage points in comparison with Quarter 2 2019.

In the Northeast, hiring plans are 1 percentage point stronger when compared with the previous quarter and the outlook reported in the South is unchanged. The strongest regional hiring pace is expected in the West, where the outlook is +22 percent. Midwest employers report an  outlook of +21 percent, and outlooks stand at +20 percent and +19 percent in the South and the Northeast, respectively.

In a comparison with the second quarter of 2019, hiring prospects are slightly stronger in the West and the Midwest, says Manpower. Northeast employers report relatively stable hiring plans, and the outlook for the South is unchanged. When compared with this time one year ago, employers in the West report moderately stronger hiring intentions. Slight year-over-year improvements are reported in the Midwest and the Northeast, while employers in the South report relatively stable hiring plans.

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